Friday Finance – USD will die hard

female and dollar bills


[Edit: I wrote this article before the Ukraine war and have added an update at the end. Let’s see how wrong I was.]

We’ll all be rooned!

There’s a lot of panic about the American dollar going the way the Zimbabwean dollar, what with all the brrr* and inflation and what-not.

It’s important to keep this in persective.

In the foreseeable future, uncomfortably high inflation is likely but hyperinflation is not.

Given the Japanese experience, the chances of deflation are >0.

Reserve currency
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Welcome to Hell

welcome to hell e-book

Book review of Welcome to Hell by “Bad” Billy Pratt

I’ve been reading Bad Billy’s blog Kill to Party for many years. In a sphere of game and neoreaction, his site is more a mix of personal dating horror stories and thwarted romantic dreams presented through the lens of pop culture as he attempts to pull apart what the hell happened to GenX.

Welcome to Hell is a collection of these blog posts but it also holds together as a book because the themes develop throughout.

Rather than blame everything on Boomers, his attention is focused inward:

Despite all the nihilistic postering, it’s important to remember that Generation X wasn’t the one with all the school shootings. The murky attitude was as shallow as the cuts on their wrists; it was a fashion accessory, it was an act, it was total bullshit. Even if they didn’t become noteworthy go-getters, GenX eventually had to grow up into lame adults.

Though carefully outside the mainstream Manosphere, Billy gets drawn into the last decade’s Manofads. One of the most interesting chapters is about his addiction to kratom, which he describes alongside the self-destruction of the Stone Temple Pilot’s lead singer:

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But still, they come!

It just has the line in the song, don’t go nuts.

In a comment, Luisman mused as to why immigrants continue to come to the West. I’ll try to dissect the reasons in this post.

The First Immigration Paradox

1. The West is uniquely racist and white people are responsible for most of the world’s problems.

2. Non-white immigrants continue to flock to the racist West in order to be discriminated against by evil white people. Some cross deserts and oceans, risking rape and death to do so.

The Second Immigration Paradox

1. The West is in catastrophic decline and Asia is rising.

2. Many immigrants, including Asians, continue to flock to the declining West.

Confusing, no?

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Friday Finance – 3 YouTubers

Here are three finance YouTubers and a brief assessment of each:

Graham Stephan

The titles and thumbnails are always clickbait but the content itself is sensible. While he addresses fun stuff like crypto and meme stocks, the bulk of his information reminds the viewer to invest consistently over the long term.

This channel is at just the right level for people who have already read my book. It often reinforces basic lessons that we’ve already learned but need to be reminded of: timing the market is a fool’s game, of course the market’s going to crash but nobody knows when, stick to your strategy and avoid fear and greed.

The Compound

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Civil War II is over (if you want it)

I think everyone missed what happened.

Throughout 2020, there was a general understanding that the US was headed for some sort of constitutional crisis. It has been building for years, especially since 2015, and it was ready to pop.

Half the nation refused to accept the 2016 Presidential election result, believing it was rigged by the Russians or something like that.

The ruling class refused to accept Trump and spent four years undermining him in any way they could.

This culminated in the run-up to the 2020 election, where Big Pharma paused vaccine testing in case it gave Trump an advantage, health authorities demanded lockdowns to destroy the Trump economy, various elite factions aided and defended Antifa/BLM riots to make Trump look bad and Big Tech covered up the Hunter Biden laptop scandal by censoring anyone who mentioned it, including myself.

All year, the world expected things to come to a head, and they did.

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Friday Finance – how to win a stock-picking competition . . .

. . . and what this tells us about actively-managed funds.

[This is no prank, it just happens that April 1 falls on a Finance Friday this year.]

The situation

You may be invited to participate in a stock-picking competition, perhaps run by your workplace or the financial section of the newspaper.

Let’s say, hypothetically, that you have to choose three stocks for a period of one year. Winner takes all. Mathematically, what would be the best way of playing it?

The strategy
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