As the West declines, solutions from the Third World become applicable. And not just generators and pre-filled barrels for when the water stops.
Eritrea is the most repressive dictatorship in Africa. But did you know, on the Red Sea coast opposite Saudi Arabia there live a Muslim minority group called the Rashaida (search: ‘Madote Rashaida’ for more information. I can’t link directly for secret reasons.)
Despite the oppressive government, they pretty much do whatever they want and are left alone. They are not enslaved under the open-ended National Service program that ruins the lives of most other groups. How do they get away with it? And is it not interesting that they were also left alone by the Italian colonists?
The Rashaida live in an extremely hot, inhospitable region. They are nomads, reputed to be quite savage, and visitors are warned to only go there with a well-connected guide as they have a reputation for kidnapping and general lawlessness (at least in terms of national law.) The civilized people of Asmara rarely venture there even if they are allowed.
The central government knows that trying to oppress them as they do everyone else is More Trouble Than It’s Worth. It would be a costly, endless task that would consume military resources that are needed on the borders to prevent citizens escaping.
In any case, the Rashaida do not cause the central government any trouble. Few Eritreans try to escape by that dangerous route. The Rashaida may engage in some smuggling but nothing too significant or disruptive. It’s easier to leave them alone and focus on repressing more malleable groups.
They are an example of a common phenomenon.
Look at this map of Africa. It is a fiction.
Many areas within these countries are not actually controlled by the official government, or at least not fully controlled. Sometimes groups hold power across an area that straddles both sides of the official border. The government of Somalia, for example, only controls small parts of the country. The D.R. Congo is divided among many, rapidly shifting armed groups.
In some areas, law prevails but the state lacks the resources and/or will to provide services such as infrastructure, education and healthcare, allowing such matters to fall into the hands of religions, companies, NGOs or China.
This is a common pattern across the Third World. One type of development lacking is statecraft: they struggle to effectively administer all areas of their official territory.
Compare Australia. Official state and federal authorities enjoy full control over all areas with the arguable exception of remote Aboriginal communities where police and other key services are limited. Even if you have a farm in the outback or retire to the Top End, the taxman knows where you live and a policeman will knock on your door if you help organize an anti-lockdown protest.
However, as the West becomes increasingly Third World, this monopoly on power is waning. Inner cities are being left to their own devices in the US as it’s More Trouble Than It’s Worth to uphold the law there. Ditto immigrant enclaves in Western Europe. Over time, it will become more common for inter- or intra-ethnic strife to be violently settled without strong state intervention. It is already well-understood in some jurisdictions that laws are to be enforced only against those most easily prosecuted while pricklier groups are left alone.
This is already happening. In forgotten news from 2020, Chechen and Algerian gangs went to war for four days in Dijon, France:
Formal sec*ssion is unnecessary. Look again at that map of Africa: power has shifted countless times since decolonization but the borders are about the same. They are indeed just lines on a map.
Western states are becoming weaker. They will soon have less money for maintaining order and providing basic amenities. Demands upon coffers and printers for handouts, corporate welfare and overseas interventions will continue to grow as the organs of government are increasingly captured by special interests. The one special interest group that has little access to the halls of power is ordinary people; i.e. you.
This will make provision of one’s own order and public services more and more necessary as time goes on. With this burden comes increasing opportunities for self-determination.
Communities that do not require much from the State, and which do not challenge or bother the State, will be able to govern themselves just as inner-city US blacks and European Muslims do already – and just as settler communities once did long ago.
If it would be a major hassle to repress independent communities, and if they don’t cause the official government enough grief to motivate them to make such an attempt, they may leave those communities alone. Western nations will reach this tipping point once trying to regain control of unofficial autonomous regions becomes More Trouble Than It’s Worth.
Of course, one day most communities will want to return to formal, responsible government. We are not savages. However, that is a way off.