More India hysteria

This time the BBC headline screams, The Indian Children Orphaned by Covid-19.

In India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, more than 1,000 Covid orphans had been identified, said Dr Preeti Verma, a member of the state’s child welfare commission.

This is to make you believe the Indian variant is coming to kill you right after it succeeds in largely depopulating India.

Look, that figure could be true. Could be. Perhaps these children were being cared for by their grandparents or a single parent who was unwell.

There are around 330,000 Covid deaths so far.

India is an enormous country where any problem is magnified by sheer numbers. In 2017, 650,000 died from influenza and/or pneumonia, 470,000 from TB and 430,000 from diarrhea (source).

More total deaths from that year:

Diabetes: 300,000

Traffic accidents: 270,000

Falls: 200,000

Suicide: 200,000

Anyway, let’s do the numbers:

Let’s say child of 15 has a mother who is 50 and a father who is 70. I’m making these ages as high as reasonably possible.

IFR for 50 y/o female: 0.123%

IFR for 70 y/o male: 2.307%

Source.

So if both of these older parents had the misfortune to contract Covid, the chances of both dying would be around 0.284%.

Most parents in India are much younger. The average age of marriage is 26 for men and 22 for women.

But maybe the Indian variant is more dangerous! It hasn’t been proved but let’s imagine for the bedwetters.

If it’s twice as deadly, the chances of both parents dying in this situation rises to 0.568%.

Few news reports have said anything about overall trends in India so let’s once again fill that void:

Infection rates:

Death rates:

I’m getting sick of writing about it. If you know someone panicking about India or the next variant the media whips up terror about, send them the links I provided here.

Numbers matter.

4 comments

  1. Their feelings don’t care about your facts, Nikolai.

    Like

  2. dickycone · June 1

    “Numbers matter.”
    Or at least, they should. At the beginning of the “pandemic” when even people like you and me thought the virus was particularly dangerous, the MSM in the US focused a lot on a cruise ship called the Diamond Princess where, supposedly, there were massive numbers of infections and deaths. It was pretty much the prime example of just how bad the virus supposedly was and how we should all be very, very afraid.
    Much like the China videos of people literally keeling over dead in the streets that you recently reminded us of, I’d since forgotten about the Diamond Princess. I only recently saw a post over at unz.com that pointed out that the infection rate on the ship was around 19% and the death rate far under 1%:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess
    If you’ve been around American cruise ship passengers at all, you know that they skew heavily towards being elderly and obese, which looks to have been the case with the 14 dead out of 3,711 total in this supposed example of the deadly nature of the virus. Also, keep in mind the close nature of a cruise ship, where everyone is packed together closely, shares dining spaces, HVAC, etc.
    I brought this up with a close relative who’s a devout Branch COVIDian recently. I could see the gears in her brain turning for a moment, perhaps even coming close to accepting the numbers as evidence, but then she said “well, they were wealthy and had access to the best health care….that’s why more people didn’t die.”
    If you want to believe this a plague and live in fear, you’ll always find a way.
    Did you happen to catch Anglin’s recent article on unz.com about the coming fake alien invasion? It still sounds pretty far fetched to me that the US government and military would actually try to get us to believe that extraterrestrials have landed and have a message for us about racism and climate change, but now that we’ve seen how goodwhite normies believe literally everything they’re told, it doesn’t seem quite as far fetched as it used to.
    https://www.unz.com/aanglin/the-pentagon-is-behind-the-fake-alien-agenda/

    Liked by 2 people

    • Alien visitation was plausible to me right up until the Pentagon started releasing that footage. Don’t know what they’re up to but it’s some bullshit.
      The fall of all previous civilizations was much more spectacular than this. We’re going out with a honk.

      Like

      • dickycone · June 1

        I’ve long thought it’s unlikely that there are any intelligent civilizations on our level anywhere else in our galaxy. I actually highly doubt there are any anywhere else in the observable universe. For the reasons Anglin discusses in his article, it’s even less likely that if any such civilizations did exist, they would be able to make it to Earth or even want to. This is all because of the vast distances involved in any hypothetical interstellar travel, distances which are expressed in large numbers of the type that, as we see with COVID stats, almost no one understands anymore. If normies do start to arrive at an understanding, just have the MSM imply that only a racist Trump supporter would question the current narrative and the normies go back to believing. Problem solved.

        I do remember how it used to be fairly common for people to believe in space aliens and that they regularly visit our planet. When I was in college in the 1990s I was on a road trip with two stereotypical airhead blondes from California. We were driving through a thick forest on a country road in the western US and they started talking about how maybe we’d be abducted by aliens. I assumed they were joking, but after a while I realized they were serious. Like I said, I still find it hard to believe that the powers that be are really going to go with space invaders next, but it now that I look at it, it does sort of seem like the seeds were planted long ago in Roswell in the 1950s and have been cultivated ever since.

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