This time the BBC headline screams, The Indian Children Orphaned by Covid-19.
In India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, more than 1,000 Covid orphans had been identified, said Dr Preeti Verma, a member of the state’s child welfare commission.
This is to make you believe the Indian variant is coming to kill you right after it succeeds in largely depopulating India.
Look, that figure could be true. Could be. Perhaps these children were being cared for by their grandparents or a single parent who was unwell.
There are around 330,000 Covid deaths so far.
India is an enormous country where any problem is magnified by sheer numbers. In 2017, 650,000 died from influenza and/or pneumonia, 470,000 from TB and 430,000 from diarrhea (source).
More total deaths from that year:
Traffic accidents: 270,000
Anyway, let’s do the numbers:
Let’s say child of 15 has a mother who is 50 and a father who is 70. I’m making these ages as high as reasonably possible.
IFR for 50 y/o female: 0.123%
IFR for 70 y/o male: 2.307%
So if both of these older parents had the misfortune to contract Covid, the chances of both dying would be around 0.284%.
Most parents in India are much younger. The average age of marriage is 26 for men and 22 for women.
But maybe the Indian variant is more dangerous! It hasn’t been proved but let’s imagine for the bedwetters.
If it’s twice as deadly, the chances of both parents dying in this situation rises to 0.568%.
Few news reports have said anything about overall trends in India so let’s once again fill that void:
I’m getting sick of writing about it. If you know someone panicking about India or the next variant the media whips up terror about, send them the links I provided here.